Craig's Winter Weather - 2023-2024 - Follow @BowechoF5
WINTER WEATHER PREDICTION - PREDICTION FACTORS
What kind of year are we in?
| Year | Kind of year? |
| 2000 - 2001 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA) |
| 2001 - 2002 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2002 - 2003 | Moderate El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2003 - 2004 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2004 - 2005 | Strong El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2005 - 2006 | Forecast is for an in between year - No El Nino or La Nina influence. |
| 2006 - 2007 | Very marginable El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2007 - 2008 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2008 - 2009 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2009 - 2010 | El Nino in place early, became stronger as winter went along - (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2010 - 2011 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2011 - 2012 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA |
| 2012 - 2013 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2013 - 2014 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A STRONG LA NINA |
| 2014-2015 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2015 - 2016 | Strong El Nino (usually above average temps, usually below normal snow) |
| 2016-2017 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA |
| 2017 - 2018 | La Nina (usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in smaller increments) - THIS WAS A WEAK LA NINA … again. |
| 2018 - 2019 | A Weak El Nino was in place (usually means better chances at above average temps, and below normal snowfall) |
| 2019 - 2020 | In between (La Nada) El Nino and La Nina - Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation & temperature |
| 2020 - 2021 |
La Nina
(usually normal or below normal temps, consistent snow in
smaller increments) - THIS WAS A MODERATE LA NINA |
| 2021 - 2022 | "Double Dip" La Nina forecasted to take place mid-winter. Maximizing between later December thru February. This encourages cooler winters. |
| 2022 - 2023 | "Triple Dip" La Nina forecasted to continue through winter (Dec. thru Feb) Forecasts favor warming of ocean temps to begin towards April 2023 |
| 2023 - 2024 | El Nino Advisory for the winter & into spring. "Strong Event" likely. Possibly historically strong event to campare with 2015-2016 & 1997-1998 |
First Snow Accumulation (1"+)
(Measured in Chanhassen - even if it is just grassy surfaces & not pavement)
| Year | Date |
| 2000 - 2001 | November 7th |
| 2001 - 2002 | November 26th |
| 2002 - 2003 | December 4th |
| 2003 - 2004 | November 3rd |
| 2004 - 2005 | January 12th |
| 2005 - 2006 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 18th Actual: Nov. 16th |
| 2006 - 2007 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 26th Actual: Dec. 21st |
| 2007 - 2008 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 19th Actual: Dec. 1st |
| 2008 - 2009 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 14th Actual: Nov 7th! |
| 2009 - 2010 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 25th (Oct 12th snow
happened prior to predictions) Actual: Dec 8th |
| 2010 - 2011 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 15th Actual: Nov 13th |
| 2011 - 2012 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 26th Actual: Nov 19th |
| 2012 - 2013 | Craig's Prediction: Nov 20th Actual: December 9th |
| 2013 - 2014 | Craig's Pediction: Nov 29th Actual: Nov 5th |
| 2014 - 2015 | Craig's Prediction: November 24th Actual: November 10th |
| 2015 - 2016 | Craig's Prediction: November 29th Actual: 11/30 - 2.1" |
| 2016- 2017 | Craig's Prediction: November 20th Actual: November 22nd |
| 2017- 2018 | Craig's
Prediction: November 19th Actual: December 4th |
| 2018- 2019 | Craig's Prediction: November 14th Actual: November 9th |
| 2019- 2020 | Craig's
Prediction: November 26th Actual: November 26th - SPOT ON!! |
| 2020- 2021 | Craig's
Prediction: N/A Actual: Oct 20th! HISTORIC!! |
| 2021 - 2022 | Craig's
Prediction: November 28th Actual: December 1st |
| 2022- 2023 | Craig's
Prediction: November 1st Actual: November 14th |
| 2023 - 2024 | Craig's
Prediction: October 31st Actual: October 31st - this snow occured prior to releasing predictions |
Weather Fun
(Official results from Chanhassen NWS will be used)
| Event | Prediction | Actual |
| Best Snowpack | Mid Jan-Mid Feb | Mid - Feb & Late March |
| Coldest Period(s) | 2nd half of Dec, & 2nd half of Mar | Mid - January |
| Warmest Period(s) | January | December & February |
| BIGGEST Storm | January | Mid - February |
| White X-mas? | I am predicting < 3" on the ground | BROWN CHRISTMAS w/ alot of rain |
 |
First Technical "Plow" for Snow Removal Services
| Year | Date |
| 2014 - 2015 | Prediction:
December 6th Actual: November 10th |
| 2015 - 2016 | Prediction: November 29th Actual: November 30th |
| 2016- 2017 | Prediction:
December 3rd Actual: November 22nd |
| 2017-2018 | Prediction: November 28th
Actual: December 4th |
| 2018- 2019 |
Prediction:
November 28th Actual: November 28th |
| 2019-2020 | Prediction:
December 5th
Actual: November 26th |
| 2020- 2021 |
Prediction:
December 2nd Actual: November 10th |
| 2021 - 2022 | Prediction:
December 1st
Actual: November 7th |
| 2022 - 2023 | Prediction: December 7th
Actual: November 14th |
| 2023 - 2024 |
Prediction: December 5th
Actual: December 31st |
Season Snowfall Potential
| Inches | % Chance | Notes |
| 35-50 | 40% |
Normal is about 50" Strong to "historically strong" El Nino points to below normal snow totals. Comparible possibly to 2015-2016 & 1997-1998 |
| 25-35 | 30% | |
| 15-25 | 15% | |
| > 50 | 10% | |
| < 15 | 5% |
Snow Plower's Delight
(Measured in Chanhassen)| Inches | Predicted Season Quantity | Actual (to date) |
| .5 - 1.0 | 4 | 2 |
| 1.0 - 1.5 | 2 | 3 |
| 1.5 - 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 - 4 | 2 | 0 |
| 4 - 8 | 1 | 2 |
| 8 - 12 | 1 | 1 |
| 12+ | 0 |
Temperature Outlook
| Month | Avg. | Prediction / Actual |
| October | 48.8 | Pred: Above Average (2-4o) Actual: 1.9o Above Average |
| November | 33.2 | Pred: Below
Average (1-3o) Actual: 3.6o Above Average |
| December | 17.9 | Pred: Above Average (2-4o) Actual: 11.8o Above Average! |
| January | 11.8 | Pred: Above Average (3-6o) Actual: 5.4o Above Average! |
| February | 17.9 | Pred: AboveAverage (1-3o) Actual: 12.4o ABOVE Average! |
| March | 31 | Pred: Average (-1/+1o) Actual: 3.9o Above Average |
| April | 46.4 | Pred: Above Average (2-4o)) Actual: |
| Total Avg. | 29.6 |
Craig's 2022-2023 Winter Snowfall prediction:
41.8"
Snowfall Monthly Averages (122 Years)
| Month | Snowfall Average |
| October | 0.8 |
| November | 4.5 |
| December | 11.4 |
| January | 11.0 |
| February | 9.5 |
| March | 8.2 |
| April | 3.5 |
| Total | 51.2 |
Craig's monthly snowfall predictions and actuals - Follow @BowechoF5
| YEAR | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | TOTAL |
| OCT. |
OCT. |
NOV. |
NOV |
DEC. | DEC. | JAN. | JAN. | FEB. | FEB | MAR. | MAR. | APR. | APR. | TOTAL | DIFF. | ||
| 2000-2001 | 0.0 | n/a | 9.8 | n/a | 30.2 | n/a | 9.4 | n/a | 16.5 | n/a | 8.6 | n/a | 1.3 | n/a | 75.8 | 64.0 | 11.8 |
| 2001-2002 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 16.8 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 3.1 | 11.4 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 20.2 | 0.0 | 66.0 | 62.0 | 4.0 |
| 2002-2003 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 22.4 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 31.7 | 52.8 | 21.1 |
| 2003-2004 | Trace | 0.0 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 10.1 | 21.5 | 19.7 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 8.0 | Trace | 1.0 | 66.3 | 58.4 | 7.9 |
| 2004-2005 | Trace | Trace | 0.5 | 9.9 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 14.5 | 8.0 | 15.2 | 6.6 | 11.6 | Trace | Trace | 25.5 | 49.7 | 24.2 |
| 2005-2006 | n/a | 0.0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 20.3 | 17.0 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49.2 | 54.4 | 5.2 |
| 2006-2007 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 16.4 | 17.5 | 10.2 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.1 | 47.9 | 0.7 |
| 2007-2008 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 8.6 | 21.3 | 14.3 | 2.4 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 18.4 | 25.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 60.5 | 61.7 | 1.2 |
| 2008-2009 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 21.8 | 14.9 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 19.8 | 3.1 | 13.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 56.8 | 68.8 | 12.0 |
| 2009-2010 | 3.6 | 3.6 | Trace | 2.7 | 20.9 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 14.8 | 18.6 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 41.8 | 47.7 | 5.9 |
| 2010-2011 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.7 | 8.3 | 36.4 | 14.8 | 15.1 | 22.6 | 16.2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 3.2 | 91.5 | 72.0 | 19.5 |
| 2011-2012 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 14.4 | 4.6 | 19.1 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 0.7 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 22.2 | 58.3 | 36.1 |
| 2012-2013 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.5 | 18.0 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 8.8 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 22.8 | 3.5 | 71.9 | 50.4 | 21.9 |
| 2013-2014 | Trace | Trace | 1.8 | 3.8 | 16.8 | 13.1 | 18.3 | 10.5 | 18.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 0.0 | 69.5 | 41.4 | 28.1 |
| 2014-2015 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 1.7 | 6.7 | 10.5 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 15.3 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 33.4 | 52.7 | 19.3 |
| 2015-2016 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 12.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 35.5 | 32.6 | 2.9 |
| 2016-2017 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 18.4 | 13.3 | 8.9 | 19.4 | Trace | 12.9 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 38.5 | 55.9 | 17.4 |
| 2017-2018 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 14.5 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 14.2 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 28.1 | Trace | 80.9 | 51.9 | 29 |
| 2018-2019 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 33.8 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 13.2 | 11.4 | Trace | 78.6 | 48.7 | 29.9 |
| 2019-2020 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 13.8 | 1.6 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 10.4 | 19.4 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 53.8 | 57.1 | 3.3 |
| 2020-2021 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 16.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 14.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 49.7 | 62.8 | 13.1 |
| 2021-2022 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 13.1 | 13.9 | 7.5 | 16.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 14.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 49.7 | 62.8 | 13.1 |
| 2022-2023 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 23.5 | 9.3 | 22.9 | 7.5 | 18.1 | 7.1 | 20.9 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 102.4 | 39.5 | 62.9 |
| 2023-2024 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 14.4 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 41.8 | |||
| OCT. |
OCT. |
NOV. |
NOV |
DEC. | DEC. | JAN. | JAN. | FEB. | FEB | MAR. | MAR. | APR. | APR. | TOTAL | DIFF. | ||
| YEAR | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | Actual | Craig's Prediction | TOTAL |
| Cumulative Difference = | 383.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| Total Years = | 23 | ||||||||||||||||
| Average Difference = | 16.67 |
